China’s Rising Aluminium Scrap Imports: Following the US Shift from Primary to Secondary Metal?

For decades, aluminium strength was measured in smelters and megawatts. Primary production sat at the centre of industrial growth, with energy availability dictating who could scale and who could not. That equation is now changing.

In both China and the United States — the world’s two largest aluminium markets — attention is steadily shifting away from energy-intensive primary aluminium and toward a material once considered secondary in every sense: aluminium scrap.

The United States has already made a decisive move. China, meanwhile, is increasing its use of secondary aluminium and importing record volumes of scrap. The key question is whether China is beginning the same transition — moving away from primary aluminium toward recycled metal as a structural pillar of its industry.

China’s aluminium consumption is changing

China currently consumes around 44 million tonnes of primary aluminium annually. While secondary aluminium still represents a smaller share, it is growing steadily.

Secondary aluminium consumption increased from 12.7 million tonnes in 2024 to 13.35 million tonnes in 2025, a 5.1% year-on-year rise. This growth has been accompanied by a sharp increase in scrap usage and higher import volumes, reflecting a structural shift rather than short-term volatility.

Carbon limits are accelerating the move to scrap

China’s aluminium strategy has long been shaped by environmental constraints. With national production capped at 45 million tonnes, policymakers have increasingly turned to recycling as a pressure valve.

In recent years, China has:

• Lowered barriers to scrap imports

• Relaxed scrap quality standards

• Expanded domestic recycling capacity

Under the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Circular Economy, China set a target to use more than 15 million tonnes of recycled aluminium by 2027.

That expansion is already underway. Between 2022 and 2026, China commissioned — or began commissioning — approximately 22 million tonnes of secondary aluminium capacity, according to industry data.

Domestic scrap supply falls short

Despite growing capacity, domestic scrap availability remains limited. Total scrap recycling capacity is estimated at around 16.6 million tonnes, yet domestic scrap generation reached only 11.77 million tonnes by 2025, up 13.8% from 2020.

This supply gap has increasingly been filled by imports.

It is also important to note that not all scrap is fully recoverable. Coatings, oils, and alloying elements must be removed during processing. Even so, recovery rates remain high:

• 95–98% for clean prompt scrap

• 85–92% for mixed scrap

Losses of 5–15% typically occur as dross and residues.

China’s aluminium scrap imports continue to climb

China’s aluminium scrap imports have shown a clear upward trend:

• 2020: 823,000 tonnes

• 2021: 1.03 million tonnes

• 2022: 1.52 million tonnes (+47.5%)

• 2023: 1.75 million tonnes (+15.6%)

• 2024: 1.78 million tonnes (+1.7%)

Between January and November 2025, imports had already reached 2 million tonnes, highlighting sustained demand as producers balance output growth against emissions limits and capacity caps.

Imports remain central to China’s scrap ecosystem, supported by tight domestic availability and consistent demand from secondary aluminium producers.

Where China sources its scrap

In 2024, China’s largest scrap suppliers were:

• Thailand: 298,000 tonnes

• Malaysia: 210,000 tonnes

• Japan: 195,000 tonnes

• South Korea: 35,456 tonnes

The pattern largely continued into 2025, with notable shifts:

• Thailand: 437,000 tonnes

• United Kingdom: 221,000 tonnes

• Japan: 210,000 tonnes

• United States: 118,000 tonnes

• Australia: 105,000 tonnes

This diversification highlights the growing depth and global reach of China’s scrap supply chain.

The US: a clear blueprint for secondary aluminium

In the United States, the shift away from primary aluminium is no longer theoretical.

Scrap demand reached 3.17 million tonnes in 2024 and edged up again in 2025. In the first half of 2025 alone, 1.8 million tonnes of aluminium were recovered from scrap, up 2.3% year on year.

Today, around 85% of US aluminium output is produced using recycled scrap as the primary feedstock.

The logic is compelling:

• Aluminium recycling uses just 5% of the energy required for primary production

• Retaining and recycling exported scrap could offset up to half of the US aluminium supply gap

• Annual energy savings are estimated at 31 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to powering three million homes

With over 500,000 jobs supported by the recycling industry, scrap has evolved from a sustainability lever into a cornerstone of energy security and industrial competitiveness.

Analysis: Is China following the same path?

China is not yet where the United States is — but the direction of travel is clear.

Primary aluminium consumption in China remains dominant at around 44 million tonnes, while scrap usage stands at roughly 13.5 million tonnes, equivalent to around one-third of primary consumption. In contrast, the US has already allowed scrap to replace primary metal at scale.

Fully mirroring the US model will take time. However, tightening production caps, environmental pressures, and rapid investment in recycling capacity all point to a gradual but structural shift toward secondary aluminium.

China’s aluminium future is unlikely to be built on primary metal alone.